Friday, April 1, 2011

No, hyperinflation is not a FED joke

For those who doubted that the US Federal Reserve would ever admit to the buying of Treasuries having the effect that the US government can spend like a drunken sailor, think again. Those who thought that never, never, NEVER would a Federal Reserve official publicly admit that they have considered how much debt they must purchase to avoid a fiscal default, think again.

Over at ZeroHedge, the analysis of Kockerlachtas latest speech is about done.

And if this isn't an opening for an official Weimar solution to the US debt problem, I don't know what is. Or hows about this quote :

"I’ve argued that even if the fiscal authority borrows exclusively in its country’s own currency, the central bank can have a large amount of control over the price level. But the central bank can only achieve that control if it is willing to commit to letting the fiscal authority default. Such a commitment may expose the country to risks of short-term and medium-term output losses. How this trade-off should best be resolved awaits future research. But I suspect that it may be optimal for central banks to guarantee fiscal authority debts in some situations."

So, once it has become "optimal" for the central bank to guarantee the fiscal authority's debt, does it ever stop to be "optimal"? Wasn't this exactly what caused the Weimar disaster - the fact that monetizing was always "optimal" in the short run?

Is there a stealth run on US Treasury debt, that has been temporarily overshadowed by the QE2 program? And does that mean that QE2 can in fact never end? Are the US monetary authorities preparing the way for a solution where interest rates are allowed to rise, on everything except public debt?

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