Monday, February 28, 2011

Something Weimar this way cometh ... ?

According to the history books, two things stood out when it came to the Weimar hyperinflation experience :

1. Speculators, gamblers and crooks started showing up where you would expect business-men and working people. Why? Because trying to make profit from meeting some sort of customer demand was pointless - the best way to make money was insane speculation in everything that wasn't nailed down.

2. Every possible and impossible thing that could be blamed for rising prices was used, except monetary policy and the printing presses.

With that in mind, after reading that the following was found in the panel response of the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, you have to start wondering if the US is already on the verge of hyperinflation :

1. Costs continue to escalate. Tight inventories still slowing down supplier response and stretching out lead-times. Sales are robust causing challenging inventory balancing act when combined with the aforementioned lead-time issue. Do more with less policies more prevalent which, for now, positively impacts the bottom line. However, the resulting burnout and multitasking are starting to take their toll on quality of work and respective yields.
2. Business continues very strong. Hopefully the steel companies won't price themselves out of the recovery
3. Steel prices are increasing weekly.
4. Inflation varies according to independent commodities--e.g., energy or cotton--individually influenced by fluctuating geopolitical or natural-disaster pressures in 2009 and 2010. Such individual commodities are not seen as an indication of averaged or overall general economic health.
5. Our larger volume items are protected by long-term blankets but on other items, suppliers are presenting fabrication price increases anywhere from 3-5%. A number of suppliers use surcharges to accommodate rising prices in fuel, energy and metal prices.
6. Price increase requests continue. Recent announcement that Whirlpool, Kraft, and Victoria's Secret will raise consumer pricing due to the cotton, metals and food markets operating at historically high levels. Unemployment remains a strong concern for macro-economic outlook and local government. Ultimately, the turbulence continues...please keep your seat belts fastened.
7. My vendors have created such low inventory that now that business is picking up they cannot meet my demand. Lead times have been very long and unpredictable.
8. 1. Raw materials and Resins for Injection Molding unstable. 2. Lead times have been extended in our system to assure delivery considering component shortages.
9. We continue to lend although there remains a lot of economic stress within the small to mid size local business community.
10. Hiring is now above pre-layoff levels Hiring is targeted to Rock Stars who make MUCH MUCH more than previously eliminated managers Sales remain unchanged, Cost increases are due to salary increases for new Rock Stars and HR consulting fees for helping to hire new Rock Stars. Cool Aid for everyone
11. Seeing turn around in a few areas TOO MANY FRICKEN SPECULATORS in market causing higher price plus weaker dollar and China. Other then that well go figure



From ZH.

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