Monday, January 17, 2011

Suicide by international debt ponzi

Sometimes you just have to ask yourself - have the leadership of Europe gone possibly mad? First the information that we now have a competing printing press running in Ireland, which can only be interpreted in one or two ways :
  • Ireland is preparing an exit from the eurozone
  • The ECB is quickly losing control of the national central banks (has anyone looked into what the rest of the Europe central banks are up to? Could there be more nasty surprises?)
And while it really doesn't matter who lends to insolvent banks when everyone is the same currency zone, this has to be considered a serious breach of protocol. Something odd is going on. And then we have the Greek, again trying to push Germany into giving them more money ("giving" is the correct term when the money will never be paid back), by publishing the idea that maybe the EFSF can buy government bonds.

So let's see here : The EFSF is supposed to issue debt so it can lend to governments in Europe that cannot borrow in the open markets. Simultaneously, Greece wants the EFSF to buy bonds from said countries, which is in essence the same thing, only it might mean that when Greece finally defaults, the EFSF liabilities do not get preferred status over the rest of the outstanding debt pile. Maybe we should consider Asian influence on this one. If China is to continue expanding their debt holdings in the PIIGS nations, one would assume that they would not want this debt to be junior to debt between European countries. So the preferred solution might be an EFSF that does not lend to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, rather one that buys bonds.

What could make this situation even more interesting? Belgium splitting into two territories. Ireland moving to the British pound. A constitutional court in Germany judging the bailouts to be unconstitutional. All in all, this blogger doesn't think it matters - because this is a Ponzi scheme spectacle that is being run by global politicians so they can avoid having to confess that there is no retirement money in Europe. It is all spent. Whether or not they keep trying to kick the can down the road or let the ECB go nuclear doesn't really matter - because the money simply isn't there, nor will it be. When people realize that, well, then the real problems start .....

0 comments:

Post a Comment